PUBLISHED: 06:05 EST, 23 August 2012 | UPDATED: 13:16 EST, 23 August 2012
- Forecast predicts loss for Obama with 218 votes versus 320 for Mitt Romney
- University of Colorado model concludes all swing seats to vote Republican including Colorado, Ohio and Florida
- Contrasts latest figures which predicts 282.6 votes for Obama and 255.4 for Romney
- New poll shows slightly more Americans are expecting Obama to win in November
- Obama enlists the help of former President Bill Clinton in new TV ad blitz on the economy
A model which has foretold the correct results of the Electoral College selections in U.S. Presidential elections since 1980, has predicted a loss for Barack Obama and the Democratic Party.
The forecast was made by two professors at the University of Colorado who used economic data and unemployment figures from each state to predict a Republican win come November.
Political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry’s study predicts 218 electoral votes for President Obama and 320 for Romney with the Republican candidate winning every seat currently considered to be on the fence.
Obama loss, Romney win: The forecast model predicted disappointing results for President Obama with 218 seats to Romney’s 320 with Romney taking home the crown in all current swing states
The prediction model uses economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia, including income per capita and both state and national unemployment figures.
The research concluded that U.S. voters blame Democrats for high unemployment rates but hold Republicans more responsible for low per capita income.
It also showed that the advantage of holding the White House disappears for Democratic candidateswhen the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 per cent.
‘Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,’ Professor Bickers said.
Winning? Romney, photographed on Thursday from his campaign plane in Hobbs, New Mexico, has been picked to win by Electoral College prediction model, but a new poll argues the contrary
Favourite? A new Ap/GfK poll says that most Americans believe President Obama, pictured on Wednesday in New York, will win in November
The professors’ analysis concluded that Romney would take home all swing states including Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Colorado.
Colorado voted for Obama in 2008 but the current president is predicted a marginal loss at 48.1 per cent against Romney’s 51.9 per cent, although with the caveat that only the two major parties were considered.
Although the economy has improved under Obama, Professor Berry said in a statement that it remains to be seen whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms.
‘If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008,’ Prof Berry said.
Although the model devised by Prof Berry and Prof Bickers has predicted the correct results of eight consecutive presidential elections, the data used for analysis was collected in June.
An update with figures from September is due next month which the team said could have a completely different outcome.
This show the latest forecast from the New York Times which predicts a win for Obama in the Electoral College selections
The results of the model’s calculations are in stark contrast to current polling data. The New York Times’ latest figures for the Electoral College selections forecasts a blue win with 282.6 electoral votes for Obama and 255.4 for Romney.
Although the figure is well above the 270 electoral votes President Obama needs to hold on to his presidency, it is a decrease by 12.8 seats since the last figures on August 15.
While the race remains a dead heat, a new AP/GfK poll out today says that most Americans expect President Obama to retain the presidency.
Overall, registered voters are about evenly split, with 47 per cent saying they plan to back Obama and Vice President Joe Biden and 46 per cent favoring Romney and Rep Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.
About one in four voters say they are undecided or could change their minds between now and November 6.
President Obama, who was all smiles yesterday as he arrived at JFK Airport in New York yesterday, ought to be worried about the forecast as it has predicted the correct outcome of the electoral votes since 1980
The contours of the race are little changed from June, when an AP-GfK survey showed 47 per cent of voters backing Obama and 44 per cent siding with Romney, suggesting Romney’s decision earlier in August to tap Ryan as his running mate was not the game-changing event he may have desired.
Both campaigns have been competing fiercely for a small sweet spot in the middle of the electorate: Independent voters who say they don’t lean toward either party.
Romney holds a narrow lead among that group with 41 per cent, compared to 30 per cent for Obama.
But few think the Romney-Ryan ticket will win in the end.
On the trail: Mitt Romney met supporters at in Bettendorf, Iowa during his presidential campaign yesterday
Asked to predict the race’s outcome, 58 per cent of adults say they expect Obama to be re-elected, whereas just 32 per cent say he will be voted out of office.
Even among those who say they have a great deal of interest in following the campaigns’ bitter back and forth, a majority expect Obama to win.
Partisans generally expect their own candidate to win, though Republicans are less sure about Romney than Democrats are about Obama – 83 per cent of Democrats say Obama will be re-elected while 57 per cent of Republicans think he’ll be voted out of office.
Among those Republicans who think Obama may pull out a victory is Catherine Shappard, a 78-year-old from Dallas.
Shappard said all of her friends agree that Romney would be a better president, yet she’s alarmed to hear even conservative commenters say Obama has a good shot at re-election.
VP pick: A new poll suggests that Romney’s decision to pick Ryan, pictured Thursday in North Carolina, was not the game-changing event he may have desired
‘I think it’s close,’ Shappard said. ‘A lot closer than I’d like it to be.’
The perception that Obama has the advantage could cut both ways.
On the one hand, people like to vote for a winner, so if voters think Obama will win, they may be more inclined to cast their lot with him.
On the other hand, it could backfire for Obama and help Romney if it drives down turnout among Democrats.
If Obama’s supporters think the race is in the bag and their vote isn’t necessary, they may stay home.
But if, like Shappard, voters suspect the race is close, they’ll be more likely to cast a ballot, said Patrick Murray, a political analyst at Monmouth University. ‘It’s less important who people think will win than if they think it’s a close race,’ said Murray.
After just over one week on the campaign trail, Romney’s running mate remains unknown to about a quarter of voters.
Ryan is viewed favorably by 40 per cent of registered voters, while 34 per cent see him unfavorably.
Obama’s running mate and current Vice President Joe Biden, has come under scrutiny in recent weeks for a string of gaffes he made during campaign stops.
On August 14, Biden told a Danville, Virginia, audience that included hundreds of black people: ‘[Romney] said in the first 100 days he’s going to let the big banks write their own rules, unchain Wall Street. They’re going to put y’all back in chains.’
Less than 24 hours later, Biden appeared to be off by 100 years when he asked another Virginia crowd: ‘Folks, where’s it written we cannot lead the world in the 20th century in making automobiles?’
Gaffe: Biden, pictured on August 14, sparked outrage with his ‘put y’all back in chains’ speech
While Romney’s campaign strategy has been to hammer at Obama on job creation and his fiscal policy, Obama has been going demographic by demographic in an effort to woo voters.
The president has alternately tailored his campaign speeches and his ad campaigns to women, older voters and, most recently, new young voters who may not have been old enough to cast a ballot four years ago.
In each case, Obama has used Romney and Ryan as foils, arguing that their policies would limit women’s health care choices, force seniors to pay more for Medicare and cut back on student loans.
A little help from my friends: A new TV ad features former President Bill Clinton speaking in support of Obama’s economic plan
Obama’s appeal to female voters got an unexpected boost by the eruption of dismay over Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin’s remarks about rape and abortion, prompting an unexpected debate on that social issue.
The president’s campaign also enlisted the help of former President Bill Clinton with a TV ad blitz on the economy.
In the ad, Clinton speaks directly to the camera and says voters face a ‘clear choice’ over which candidate will return the nation to full employment.
‘We need to keep going with his plan,’ Clinton says of Obama in the ad, which will run in eight battleground states.